Uncertainty & Risk
Kinds of uncertainty, risk registers, rare high-impact events and why forecasts miss.
Risk vs. Uncertainty: Knight's Distinction and the Kinds You Face
What Frank Knight meant by risk and uncertainty, the main kinds of uncertainty organizations face, and why each kind calls for a different response.
Read · 6 min read →Uncertainty & RiskBuilding a Simple Risk Register: Fields, Scales and Upkeep
A step-by-step way to build a risk register a small team will actually maintain, drawing on ISO 31000 and NIST guidance on recording and ranking risks.
Read · 6 min read →Uncertainty & RiskTail Risk and Black Swans: Preparing for Rare, Severe Events
A hype-free guide to rare, high-impact events: why data and models struggle with them, and the practical habits that make an organization harder to break.
Read · 6 min read →Uncertainty & RiskWhy Forecasts Miss: Lessons From Tetlock's Forecasting Tournaments
What research by Philip Tetlock, Barbara Mellers and colleagues found about accurate forecasting, and how a business team can borrow its methods.
Read · 6 min read →Uncertainty & RiskBusiness Continuity Planning Basics: A FEMA Ready Business Walkthrough
How a small or midsize business can build a first continuity plan with FEMA's free Ready Business materials, from impact analysis to tested recovery strategies.
Read · 6 min read →Uncertainty & RiskSupply-Chain Risk for Small Businesses: Map, Rank and Back Up
A practical method for small and midsize businesses to find hidden supplier dependencies, rank them by impact and build sensible backups without overspending.
Read · 6 min read →